Are there any Republicans running against Trump in 2020?
Much of the coverage of the 2020 presidential election has focused on the many Democratic candidates seeking to challenge incumbent President Donald Trump. But what about the other Republican candidates running for president in 2020?"(Open in new tab) Let's take a look at the Republican power structure and potential challengers to President Trump.
Updated 2/25/20:
At this point, there is only one Republican challenger to Trump (open in new tab) - 1990s Massachusetts governor and former federal prosecutor William Weld. He has always been strongly anti-Trump since the 2016 election, when he ran for vice president as a Libertarian with Gary Johnson (open in new tab) as his presidential candidate. Weld is clearly still considered a long shot (opens in new tab) (more on that later), but he is still speaking out. One of the reasons I'm running is because I want to abide by the Constitution and the rule of law."
Conservative radio show host Joe Walsh withdrew from the race in early February 2020 after the Iowa caucuses. He said, "I did it because I thought it was really important that Republicans were complaining every day about how unqualified this president is."
Mark Sanford ended his campaign in November 2019, citing an impeachment trial (open in new tab). He said he "wanted to interject this issue of how much we are spending financially into the national debate every four years," but "with impeachment in the air, there was no desire to have a serious, nuanced debate."
Original 9/12/19:
So far there are three official Republican challengers, one of whom was just announced a few days ago: Mark Sanford (opens in new tab). The name may sound familiar: he is a former governor of South Carolina and a former congressman from the state's 1st congressional district. He is also the man who went missing for several days and then was forced to admit that he was visiting his mistress in Argentina, leading to his divorce from his then wife. Even after the scandal, it appears that no long-term damage was done to his political career, as he remained a member of the House of Representatives from 2013 to 2019.
According to the New York Times, Sanford's platform is perhaps much more nuanced than that of the other two candidates, who are clearly "Never Trump" and attempt to offer an alternative to those within the Republican Party who do not want to support the incumbent.
"In fact, on some issues, he will probably agree [with Trump], and not just tokenistically."
So far, Sanford has made a point of bringing up the current national debt (open in new tab), which he says could lead to a fiscal crisis and has been getting worse over the past four years. Like the other candidates, he is unlikely to win, but he has a good chance of attracting voters and raising issues that will not be addressed in the 2020 elections.
The second candidate who just announced his candidacy is Joe Walsh, a Tea Party Republican who doubles as a conservative radio host and served one term as a congressman for Illinois' 8th District. Trump's critics hope Walsh will play a role in undermining Trump's 2020 run (opens in new tab).
Walsh was initially a Trump supporter, but quickly changed course. He has talked about running, but has not confirmed. He said, "If I were to run, it would be before Labor Day." His break with Trump came during his recent meeting with Putin. "He stood before the world in Helsinki and said, 'I believe in Putin. He explained that Republican challengers like him are necessary "to stick our necks out because if people see it, more people will."
While he is not likely to beat Trump, critics hope that Walsh's charismatic and vocal style as a talk radio host will help persuade those who have second thoughts about the incumbent.
William Weld, the last Republican challenger, served as governor of Massachusetts from 1991-1997, seeking to restore "equality, dignity, and opportunity for all" (the principles of Abraham Lincoln (open with a new tab) to the Republican Party. He is strongly anti-Trump in both rhetoric and action, arguing that the president should be indicted for obstruction of justice (open in new tab). Interestingly, while he is unusually pro-choice for a conservative, he is also pro-tax cuts and pro-small government; in 2016, he was named Gary Johnson's vice president on the libertarian ticket.
Weld has been talked about as a very long-shot candidate, continuing to criticize Trump and warning that the incumbent president may not leave the White House voluntarily (opens in new tab) if he is defeated in 2020. Weld also said (opens in new tab) that he will continue to fight to preserve the more old-fashioned values of the Republican Party, rather than the cult of personality that is found in the modern Republican Party. His candidacy has so far not received significant support.
Two other politicians were considering running, but both have now indicated that they will not jump into the 2020 race. There was one other candidate (open in new tab) who at one point appeared to be considering a 2020 run (former Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, who served from 2013 to 2019). He too is staunchly opposed to Trump.
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (opens in new tab), who just won re-election, is also anti-Trump, especially over the Mueller report (opens in new tab). As a moderate Republican, he is in favor of tax cuts, but also favors climate change reform, LGBT rights, and gun control.
Hogan told Politico (opens in new tab), "I don't see a path to winning a Republican primary against this president, and I don't see anyone who does. But things change. He added, "I don't know what the situation will be like this summer or in the fall." He also said he will not run unless he sees a path to victory (opens in new tab); on June 1, he made it official (opens in new tab): no, will not run
He served as governor of Ohio from 2011 to 2019 and in 2016 John Kasich, a presidential candidate, was also considering a possible run. He is more conservative, supporting tax cuts and actually repealing Planned Parenthood in Ohio, but he also has a moderate stance, acknowledging climate change as a threat. He has also built a platform (open in new tab) of fixing broken government and restoring civility to politics.
He also admits to the AP (open in new tab), "If you run as a Republican, you have to have a sense that if you get into the primaries, you can win. Right now, you probably can't win. But that's today." It's always changing." On March 30, he said (opens in new tab). I have never been involved in a political race that I didn't think I could win. So he is out, too.
More Republican challengers, courtesy of Fortune (opens in new tab), are important to the race because:
Presidents who face reputable challengers in primaries often lose re-election even if they win their party's nomination. This is because a divided party is less likely to garner the necessary votes. The last time this happened was in 1992, when George H.W. Bush faced a far-right candidate in the primaries and lost reelection to Bill Clinton.
Therefore, even if the Republican candidate does not win in a challenge, it could serve to weaken the incumbent president's chances of winning. However, some pundits speculate (open in new tab) that given the magnitude of Trump's impact on the Republican Party, especially on the far right, a challenge in the primaries would have an even smaller impact on Trump's run than usual. This may also explain why many have been reluctant to run: according to Fortune magazine, "Trump's 2020 campaign has merged with the Republican National Committee into a joint fundraising committee called 'Trump Victory,'" which doesn't help matters either.
According to Vanity Fair (opens in new tab), Trump initially struggled with fundraising. 'It's Trump fatigue,' says a prominent Republican donor. "The bumper sticker for 2020 should look like this: the bumper sticker for 2020 should be, 'Same policies, but promises to be less crazy.'" But the number is growing (opens in new tab).
Watch this space - we'll update the article as we learn more.
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